Buyers kept showing up.
The national fear cycle didn't.
Tariff whiplash. Rate swings. Consumer confidence falling. Austin's numbers held their shape. Here's the Q1 arc in five stats, three months, and four counties.
Q1 2026 at a glance
Five numbers. Read them as a set. Directional, not definitional.
How the quarter unfolded
Three months, three different stories. Read them in order. The arc is the point.
The market woke up with zero patience for bad pricing
The 30-year briefly dipped below 6%. New listings surged as sellers positioned for the year, and median sold landed at $395K — the low point of the quarter. Buyers showed up: pending activity opened the year up YoY, but overpriced listings got punished instantly. Close-to-list sat around 93%, meaning sellers had to move on terms, not just headline price.
Buyers came back faster than sellers. That changed the direction.
Median nudged to $397K. The real story was on the other side of the ledger: buyers absorbed supply faster than new listings could replace it. That's a demand-side move, not a seller decision. Despite tariff headlines and policy chaos out of Washington, pending activity held strong. The buyer score dropped to 59 not because the market tightened dramatically, but because the terms of engagement shifted.
Prices ticked up $15K month-over-month. Something shifted.
Median sold jumped from $397K in February to $412K in March — the first meaningful MoM move up in months. Active inventory finished Q1 up 7.1% YoY, but that number hides the velocity. Pending finished the quarter at +8.4% YoY. Close-to-list landed at 93.6%. Still buyer-leaning, but the flexibility that opened Q1 is narrower than it was 60 days ago.
Five headlines that shaped the quarter
National fear. Local momentum. Tap any event for the Austin response.
rates30-year mortgage briefly dipped below 6%
A flight to safety pushed investors into US Treasuries. Bond demand pulled the 10-year yield down, and mortgages — which track the 10-year, not Fed funds — moved with it. The window was narrow but real.
Austin: buyers responded within weeks. January pending activity opened the year well above seasonal baseline.
policyTariffs announced on building materials, electronics, and autos
New tariff tranches hit the news cycle, adding an estimated mid-five-figure cost per new build. Material prices firmed. Builder starts slowed nationally.
Austin: supply-side pressure started showing up in new listing volume. Fewer competing listings meant the listings that did hit the market faced less competition, not more.
economyConsumer sentiment dropped to multi-year lows
University of Michigan and Conference Board sentiment readings both fell hard. Headlines warned of discretionary spending pullback. Housing is usually top of that list.
Austin: pending activity held. Local demand is driven by job migration and relocation — not the same inputs the sentiment surveys measure.
fedFed signaled longer pause, not cuts
Fed commentary leaned hawkish. Markets had priced in rate cuts by mid-year. Those expectations unwound, and the 10-year yield ticked back up. Mortgage rates followed.
Austin: the sub-6% window closed. Buyers who moved in January locked a spread that wasn't available six weeks later.
policyGeopolitical escalation, oil price spike
An oil shock sent gasoline prices higher and pushed inflation expectations up. Rate expectations followed. Consumer confidence crashed to its lowest reading since 2022.
Austin: pending still finished Q1 at +8.4% YoY. Local beat national, again.
housingNew home starts slowed on tariff + labor pressure
Builder permits and starts softened. The combination of material cost increases and tighter labor narrowed the margin for new construction. Resale inventory ended up with less builder competition than expected.
Austin: the supply squeeze is early-stage but visible. If builder pullback persists through spring, resale sellers enter Q2 with an edge they didn't have in 2025.
Three chains that defined Q1
Every quarter has an underlying logic. Here's Q1's.
Tariff chaos made mortgage rates cheaper. For a minute.
Flight to safety into Treasuries pushed the 10-year yield down. Mortgages are priced off that yield, not Fed funds. Rates briefly broke below 6% in January. Austin buyers used the window before the Fed's February posture pulled it back shut. National fear opened a local window.
tariff chaos → bond rally → yields down → sub-6% mortgages → Austin buyer surgeThe same tariffs quietly choked new supply.
Material costs rose on tariffs. Labor tightened. Builder starts softened through the quarter. Resale inventory finished Q1 at +7.1% YoY — which sounds like more choice, but the new-construction competition pulled back at the same time. Both sides of the supply equation are tightening quietly.
tariffs → build costs up → fewer starts → resale sellers face less builder competitionApartments flooded the market. Rent cracked.
Austin absorbed a massive wave of new apartment deliveries over the past few years and the glut hit its peak in Q1. Median rent dropped to $1,357, down 7% YoY. That's softer than the national average for the first time in years. Renters got leverage — and the same monthly payment started looking different on the buy side.
apartment glut → rent softens → same $ = more house on buy side → rent-vs-buy math shiftsFour counties. Four different Q1s.
Same metro, different math. Tap a county to see its Q1 summary.
Travis County · Q1 Summary
Travis holds the highest median in the metro and the tightest urban core. Inside Austin city limits, absorption was faster than the broader MSA. The county leans buyer on paper, but the inner ring is quietly moving toward balance.
BUYERSInside city limits is tightening faster than the MSA average. Move with urgency on Travis listings under $500K — that band is absorbing first.
SELLERSPrice precisely from day one. Travis has the highest median but also the deepest buyer expectations. Overprice by 3% and you lose two weeks of momentum.
Williamson County · Q1 Summary
Williamson is the tightest market in the metro. Cedar Park, Leander, and Round Rock are moving on the back of jobs and schools, with builder competition keeping resale sellers honest. Balanced territory leaning slightly seller.
BUYERSBuilders are offering aggressive incentives in Leander and Hutto. Use those as leverage on resale negotiations — match the builder package or move on.
SELLERSYou're competing with new construction on terms, not just price. Rate buydowns and closing cost contributions matter more than a small price cut.
Hays County · Q1 Summary
Hays is buyer-friendly but tightening. Kyle and Buda under $400K moved fastest in Q1. San Marcos and Dripping Springs carry the most oversupply. The sub-$400K band is one of the most active price points in the metro.
BUYERSSub-$400K in Kyle/Buda moves fast. Be ready with pre-approval. Above $500K, negotiate on everything — there's more sitting inventory at that level.
SELLERSUpper price ranges carry the most oversupply. Price sharp from day one or expect 90+ days on market.
Bastrop County · Q1 Summary
The deepest buyer's market in the metro. Over 11 months of supply means buyers set the terms. Price, repairs, concessions, rate buydowns — everything is on the table. Sellers need to lead with the sharpest pricing in the metro to generate traction.
BUYERSAsk for everything. 11.2 months of supply means you set the terms. Repairs, concessions, buydowns — all negotiable.
SELLERSPrice aggressively from day one. Buyers have options and they know it. The homes that sold in Q1 were priced for the market, not for last year.
Your rent builds your landlord's equity. Not yours.
Austin is the softest large rental market in the US right now. Here's what that actually means for your money.
Down 7% YoY. Below the national average for the first time in years. Your landlord needs you more than you need them. But that same $1,357 builds $0 in equity.
At current rates, a payment close to $1,357 (PITI, low down) covers roughly a $340K mortgage range. Sellers are contributing closing costs. The math isn't a coin flip anymore.
What to watch in Q2
Four numbers. If you only track one, make it new listing volume.
New listing volume is the key lever
New listings through Q1 ran well below last year. If this holds through May, inventory tightens fast and March's $15K MoM move becomes a trend, not a blip. A spring flood reverses it. This one number tells you which direction Q2 goes.
The peak buyer demand window
Historically the peak buyer demand week in Austin. With fewer competing listings, sellers on-market now sit in their best position since early 2023. Buyers: be ready before this window, not during it. Pre-approval with a rate-lock strategy is the difference between winning and getting outbid in a narrow sprint.
Pending activity is the real tell
Pending closed Q1 at +8.4% YoY despite every national headline telling buyers to wait. That signal is louder than any price print. Pending leads closed sales by 30–45 days — which means Q2 closed volume is already mostly written.
Watch the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed
Mortgages track the 10-year Treasury yield, not Fed funds. If geopolitical tension eases and inflation expectations cool, rates creep back down. If it escalates, the bond market opens another window like January's. The Fed gets the headlines; the bond market moves your payment.
How did your neighborhood move in Q1?
Tell us your zip, neighborhood, or address. We'll pull Q1 data specific to your area and send it back.
Planning a move in Q2?
Peak buyer demand window is two weeks away. If you're planning to buy or sell this spring, let's get your plan in place before the window opens.